GFS Insights: September 2026 Edition
What we’re seeing
El Niño is now firmly established and strengthening.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) gives a near 100% probability that El Niño will persist through February 2027 and expects the event to reach very strong intensity towards the end of 2026.
Its impact will vary by region. El Niño can alter rainfall and temperature patterns, increasing the likelihood of drought in some locations and heavy rainfall, flooding, or extreme heat in others.
The wider consequences are already significant. In its 2026–27 Joint Anticipatory Action Appeal, the FAO and World Food Programme warn that El Niño is threatening food security, agriculture, and livelihoods across multiple regions, and are seeking US$202 million to support 8.8 million people through anticipatory action. The report also highlights pressure on water availability, local food systems, and household livelihoods as key areas of concern.
The World Bank has already highlighted potential impacts across South Asia, Southern Africa, Australia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific, including pressure on agriculture, water availability, and wider local economies.
For film and television, the relevance goes beyond weather alone. A large-scale climate event can place pressure on the wider systems and resources that a production depends on.
Fiji provides a clear example
Fiji is an established international filming destination and continues to host major productions including Survivor and Love Island USA. It is also particularly sensitive to El Niño-related drought.
The World Bank notes that almost all droughts recorded in Fiji have been associated with El Niño, although not every El Niño results in drought. When drought occurs, an average of 20–30% of Fiji’s land area can experience drought conditions.
That risk is particularly relevant now. On 10 September 2026, the Fiji Meteorological Service reported a very high chance of “Very Dry” conditions across the Fiji Group from September to November. In its forecasting system, “Very Dry” means rainfall within the lowest 20% of historical observations.
Previous events show how significant the impact can become. During Fiji’s severe 1997–98 El Niño-related drought:
- Around 220,000 people were directly affected
- A national emergency was declared
- Drinking-water shortages affected communities
- Agriculture and livestock were disrupted
- Economic losses were estimated at approximately FJ$275–300 million
Why this matters for a production
For a production filming in Fiji, the concern is not simply reduced rainfall.
Prolonged dry conditions can place pressure on the wider environment and services that support filming, including:
- Water availability at locations and accommodation
- Vegetation, landscape appearance, and visual continuity
- Wildfire and grass-fire conditions
- Availability and cost of locally sourced food and supplies
- Reliability of local services and infrastructure
- Working conditions for cast and crew
- Location access and contingency planning
These effects may be particularly important for productions operating in remote areas or relying heavily on local infrastructure and resources.
The key consideration is that a macro climate event can create operational pressures that are not immediately obvious when a production first selects its location.
Practical controls
- Use current climate outlooks alongside historical weather information
- Reassess familiar locations rather than relying only on previous production experience
- Identify dependencies on water, power, transport, accommodation, and local services
- Consider how drought, heat, flooding, or other changing conditions may affect the wider production environment
- Build contingency into climate-sensitive locations and schedules
- Continue monitoring conditions as production approaches and during production
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