GFS Insights: September 2026 Edition
What we’re seeing
Global oil prices have risen sharply. As of 16 September 2026, Brent crude was trading at around US$108 per barrel, following renewed disruption to major oil production and shipping routes.
The impact does not stop at the oil market. Higher crude prices flow into jet fuel, diesel, freight, transport, and other services that productions rely on.
Air travel provides a clear example. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects jet fuel to average approximately US$152 per barrel in 2026, almost 70% higher than the US$90 average in 2025. Fuel is therefore expected to account for 31.4% of airline operating costs in 2026, up from 25.4% in 2025.
For productions, the important point is that one global price movement can affect several areas of the production budget at the same time.
Why this matters for a production
Fuel is embedded throughout physical production. It powers vehicles and generators, moves equipment and sets, supports air and sea freight, and influences the cost of getting cast and crew to location.
Screen Ireland estimates that more than half of the carbon emissions from a typical film and television production come from petrol and diesel used to move people and equipment or provide power at remote locations. Around one-third of production diesel use can come from generators, with a further quarter used by trucks.
Higher oil prices can therefore affect:
- Crew and Talent travel
- Production vehicles and unit moves
- Generators and temporary power
- Equipment and set transport
- Air and sea freight
- Supplier and delivery costs
The impact can also be indirect. Transport providers may introduce fuel surcharges, suppliers may increase delivery costs, and remote locations that depend on generators or imported fuel can become more expensive to service.
This matters because production budgets are often set months before filming begins. The production plan may stay the same while the cost of delivering it changes underneath it.
Practical controls
- Refresh travel, transport, freight, and fuel assumptions as production approaches
- Identify the areas of the budget most exposed to fuel-price changes
- Check supplier agreements for fuel surcharges or price-adjustment clauses
- Review transport and power requirements when comparing locations
- Consider local sourcing or alternative power arrangements where practical
- Maintain appropriate contingency for transport and energy-cost volatility
Productions cannot control global oil prices, but they can understand where those changes are likely to reach the production before they become unexpected costs.
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